Seen in a historical perspective, these countries have been rivals in competition to become the dominant regional power base. According to FOI researcher Alexander Atarodi, some of the relevant factors leading to tension in the relations between these two neighbours are access to water, the Kurdish question, the American invasion and the Iraqi refugees.

Since the climate is relatively dry, competition for the water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers is hard. This situation therefore creates a political tension in the sense of community between the two countries. Another question that remains unresolved relates to the situations of the Kurds in both countries. The Kurds make up around ten percent of the population in Syria. Together with other Kurds in Turkey, Iran and Iraq, these constitute a large stateless ethnic group in the region.

Up to the time of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Syria had good political relations with Kurdish parties in Iraq. The Kurdish parties KDP and PUK were also to some extent politically active in the Kurdish regions of Syria. Kurdish parties are now prohibited in Syria while the Kurds in Iraq enjoy autonomy under the Iraqi constitution.
If the Kurds were to gain independence in Iraq, this would probably lead to escalation of the conflict with the Kurds in Syria. The American invasion of 2003 caused millions of Iraqis to seek refuge in other countries. The situation of Iraqi refugees in Syria now threatens to become permanent, which also affects relations between the two countries.
In the Memo, Alexander Atarodi also describes the historical development of relations between the countries as well as Syria’s national interests regarding Iraq.